Mission:
Prepared by:
Mike Baker
Beef Cattle Ext. Specialist
Cornell University
Phone: 607-255-5923
Fax: 716-367-3963
Email: mjb28@cornell.edu
USDA shocks markets by estimating higher corn acreage
By Rita Jane Gabbett on 6/30/2009, Meatingplace.com
In what will undoubtedly be a windfall of lower feed prices for livestock producers, USDA estimated U.S. corn acreage at 87 million acres, up 1 million acres from last year and well above both analysts' expectations and the 85 million acres USDA expected farmers to plant based on its poll of their intentions in March.
Corn futures prices fell the daily limit of 30 cents per bushel at the open on the Chicago Board of Trade after USDA's Acreage report was released.
"This is about the best news the hog industry has had all year long," University of Missouri livestock economist Ron Plain told Meatingplace, noting that feed prices will surely decline on the prospects that larger corn acreage will translate into more corn production.
He said higher prices were rationing corn use so far this year in anticipation of tight stocks from expected acreage reductions that did not materialize. (See U.S. farmers to plant less corn, more soybeans: USDA on Meatingplace.com, March 31, 2009.)
USDA's acreage estimates are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of June on thousands of farms across the United States. At 87 million acres, this would be the second-largest corn acreage in more than 60 years.
USDA also estimated farmers sowed a record-high 77.5 million acres to soybeans, up 1.8 million acres from last year and up 1.5 million acres, or almost 2 percent, from the March planting intentions forecast.
USDA's August 12 Crop Production report will contain the first 2009 estimates of corn and soybean yield and production.
Fewer cattle placed on feed in May than expected
By Rita Jane Gabbett on 6/22/2009, Meatingplace.com
Not only were cattle placed on feed in May the second lowest for that month since tracking began in 1996, placements were also well below analysts' expectations.
Market analysts were expecting Friday afternoon's USDA Cattle on Feed report to show placements fell 12.3 percent below a year ago, according to a Dow Jones survey. The actual drop was closer to 14 percent.
The decline reflects continued disappointment in the fed cattle market and continuing higher feed costs, according to the CME's Daily Livestock Report. The report went on to say that lower placements, 45 percent fewer feeder cattle imports from Canada and lower placement weights all suggest USDA's estimate for the 2008 calf crop and supplies of calves and feeder cattle outside feed lots have been too high.
"This suggests that many of the cattle placed on feed last month will not come to market until approximately October or November and that prices for cattle before then may be higher than previously anticipated," Goldman wrote in a note to investors.